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Arjun papers

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---
author: Arjunveer Singh
title: Starting my Research Journey on Medium
tags: ["Research", "Language", "Cybernetics", "Automation"]
---
# Starting my Research Journey on Medium
Hello everyone, I am Arjunveer Singh, a researcher with a wide range of interests. My first research paper on Devanagari Script will be published in a few days which I will then share here. I will share my updates on that research here. Till then, let that research be a surprise :)
At the same time, I am working on my new research on Cybernetics. I am researching on Automated Economy and many other related things. I believe that things under Automated Governance are much easy to work with and I believe nowadays enough information is there to make them but research in Automated Economy is the least. I will share my progressing research and all of my work on Cybernetic Economics here while also I may share my other works on other aspects of Automated things which will be far more efficient than current system.
Your suggestions and advice are always welcome and your support is what will motivate me to continue this project.
You can also ask me questions which I will be always happy to answer.
Stay tuned :)

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papers/Arjun/01_victoria_first.md Normal file
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---
author: Arjunveer Singh
title: First Basic Automated Economy Simulation in Victoria II
tags: ["Cybernetics", "Economy", "Automation", "Simulation"]
---
# First Basic Automated Economy Simulation in Victoria II
I did my first simulation of a very basic type of automated economy. Though I have previously created some models and algorithms but I want to start from the lowest level possible to make my final model as accurate and as efficient as possible. First of all, in this first simulation, I did not create a model by myself but instead I used a game for simulation. Yes you heard right, a game, I used Victoria II, although obviously its economic system is not perfect and also the game’s timeline starts in the 1800s but still it somewhat mirrors actual economic activity and also is great for a very basic experiment. After all if my models can’t work in a game, how can I expect them to work in real life, in which there are endless possibilities and uncertainties?
I chose the Russian Empire in 1836 as my nation for simulation as it has enough resources to build factories and also is powerful enough to keep me away from all wars. This run was my Heavy Industry focused economy, so I just structured my algorithm in a way in which my production of steel, cement and machine parts becomes higher than my consumption as fast as possible. I did not add this directly in the game code but instead did this manually while following my own algorithm, thus the result is late i.e. I took a bit more time than a fully automated system would take because I was doing this manually while looking at my algorithm and had to keep different things in my mind at the same time. I achieved my goal in 7 years, i.e. I achieved this in 1843 itself, though I also at the same time reduced the spending for many things as will be shown in my in-game screenshots. It was done so that I can reach my results quickly and also not to make it too complex.
I also took no action apart from what my alogrithm told me, so I bought nothing else, built no other factory, thus keeping the results as true as possible. While doing each experiment and reading more, I am myself learning more about this field because I am neither a scholar nor a professor of this field, neither this field garners much interest nowadays.
This is a very basic simulation but the upcoming ones will be progressively complex.
This was the algorithm I used, it is not a code specific algorithm, it follows a logical nature and adjusted to look as much as it can like actual code though I did not enter it in the game as I said above, rather I manually followed it.
```pseudocode
if iron_production < iron_usage then:
if treasury > required_amount_to_build_iron_factory + 8k then:
build steel factory
until iron_production > iron_usage
if any construction item < requirements then:
buy max from world market until construction items are enough
when construction items are enough:
automate trade
```
and same will follow with cement and machine parts too
Feel free to comment and share your suggestions, feedback etc.
The results are given in the below images:-
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*I9J_bweXQH3LXnzkuw7J-A.png">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*0fGTdv2HMpcVRlP97V3ATA.png">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*tc89nK4VWnYg5XXyLxp5Pg.png">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*KeKLzmSbRiwJnB_9JSFc-w.png">

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---
author: Arjunveer Singh
title: Second Automated Economy Simulation in Victoria II
tags: ["Cybernetics", "Economics", "Victoria 2", "Automation", "Simulation"]
---
# Second Automated Economy Simulation in Victoria II
This is my second simulation of automated economy in Victoria II though this is also manual i.e. I follow my own code-like algorithm. This was explained in my previous post too. This time the simulation was far more complex than the first one and was much longer too. Also as follow my algorithm manually, the work is slow, if the same thing had been done automatically, it would be achieved far earlier, it is very tough to actually check all different statistics etc. at the same time.
This time I chose the Ottoman Empire starting in 1836 because I believe that nation was strong enough than some other countries while at the same time I could do a lot of improvements as the nations economy was worse than the other Great Powers and European counterparts. My algorithm actually developed through this simulation too and this time my goals were different.
Instead of focusing on Steel, Cement and Machine Parts only, I focused on all sectors of the economy for overall improvement. This simulation was around 40 years long, much longer than the first one, where the simulation was just for 7 years!
But in this simulation too, the sector I put the least focus on was military and everything related to it, after all I had to improve the lives of the existing citizens of the Empire first :)
But as this was not Russian Empire, so it was safe from wars, in the span of 40 years, I had to fight many wars, mainly with great powers and also had too fight a short world war! I won in all, but victory has a cost too, in the end I had to mobilize the Ottoman Empire.
But I had very interesting results in the end, and obviously this simulation was a success.
This post is a bit long but bear with, you will truly enjoy it and see the results by yourself which will define the success of automated economy (at least right now in the game).
Let me show you one by one with the help of screenshots:-
## Budget
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*Ma4Aje0FVGZFAy_CNBkjRw.png">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*x4jOOqFS3S6WcPWbMPb32g.png">
This is budget screen, as you can at the start of my run in the first image, there was 50 percent tax on all types of citizens and education, military and administration spending was at 50 percent. You can also see that the treasury is really low and there are losses, so it cannot sustain itself with the current budget. Also if you see at the top, the literacy rate is 7.8%
In the second image, after nearly 40 years, the situation has changed completely. The treasury is first of all overflowing with money, the tax is now progressive with the poor section only being taxed 25%. The education, administration and military spending is also at 100% and if you see on the top, the literacy rate is now 30.7%!
## Production
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*p9AYCMEemPnn0SaxfSuFXw.png">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*5dX-oM9S5rnq1iyq92RSQw.png">
This is the production screen. Before telling you the results and the changes, let me tell you again, in the first image, the country is not mobilized whereas in the second image it is, also as I said earlier, in the span of 40 years, I have fought a lot of wars, and won all of them. Also in this run, I had load my save game, it means even if something unfavourable (like a world war) happened, I did not reload the game and just continued as is, because in the real life there are no saves :) So at least my model should be able to survive the uncertainties in the game to be actually tested in real life. Also in the first image, all of the things are made by artisans whereas in the second image, artisans produce way less than the first pictures and now factories produce a lot. This is because of first of all, low demand of some items, second is well, the artisans are at the battlefront!
Well first of all, with the help of my algorithm, I achieved the production of almost all goods higher than their usage, so well if I am able to satisfy all demands, numbers shouldn't matter much.
But still numbers are numbers so let me tell you some statistics:-
First of all I started producing all military goods and steel which was not done before. Also even in research, I focused on industry and resource extraction part thus leading to a huge increase in raw materials.
These are the percentages of production of some important things-
- Ammunition, Small Arms, Artillery, Steel, Machine Parts, Explosives: New factories
- Cotton: +1163.89%
- Iron: +1093.44%
- Coal: +951.35%
- Sulphur: +686.11%
- Furniture: +329.90%
- Glass: +234.93%
- Wool: +220.36%
- Grain: +212.69%
- Lumber: +187.50%
- Timber: +139.53%
- Liquor: +113.49%
- Fabric: -77.76%
- Regular Clothes: -65.98%
- Cement: +55.56%
- Fertilizer: -51.52%
- Luxury Furniture: -50.00%
- Wine: -47.65%
- Paper: +44.91%
- Luxury Clothes: -33.33%
- Canned Food: -30.30%
The percentages as you can see have increased most of the times. In some items, as I mentioned earlier, the production is reduced due to less number of artisans producing because they are at the frontline and some other reasons but my overall production has increased. The depedency is majorly now shifting towards factories instead of artisans. But even the items that have reduced productions, they are still higher than the usage and demand thus making it perfectly well.
## Factories
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="700" height="394" loading="lazy" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:913/1*FlX-XYZtee9pR4tyWGNaPA.png">
As visible above, Ottoman Empire now has the highest number of factories in the world, even higher than the British Empire which is a great achievement for a nation which at the start of the simulation had 0 factories. Also well I built railroads in every single province thus I literally maxxed out the infratructure as it could be under the limitations of technology.
## Military
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*byc4faFmFlhStS3lfmDxKg.png">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*YGzugzlOZTMAuvcv8kaFgw.png">
Although I focused the least on military, but when my treasury had enough money, I started building my military build up. Army was increased by 39.13% and Navy was increased by 275.68%! Thus I strengthened the Ottoman nation and finally recovered the ‘Sick Man of Europe’!
## Conquest
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*L2qLZvgucRH44PpoWk0DGg.png">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="500" height="768" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1782/1*c9olGwAy6kPV_UKu0xZZJQ.png">
With the increased military, I increased the boundaries of the empire too! I annexed all of my cores from Greece and Egypt and then fought many other different wars to reach that extent. But even in doing so, I did not focus on colonization because my whole research sector in the game was focused on industry and resource extraction. So even while focusing the least on military and conquest, I did pretty well. Well if I had waged wars in the first year of the simulation itself, I would automatically have gained a lot of prestige and also had gained many benefits, but what use are those riches and that prestige when your own citizens are starving. I started wars very late in the game and that too just to protect myself.
## Algorithm:
This is my code-like algorithm which I followed, and yeah it is much longer than the previous one.
```
if item_produced< item_used then
if treasure > factory_cost+5k then
Build item_factory
Until item_produced > item_used
If any construction_item< factory_construction_requirements then
buy 2000 from the world market and build factory of the same material
When construction_items<= factory_construction_requirements then
automate trade
# This will follow with all other items and Heavy Industry will be prioritised then normal good then military goods
Build factories in the province with the most unemployed craftsmen
If item_production=item_used then
Build 1 factory of the same type
If treasury_profit>100 for more than 10 days then
Invest 5 percent in Administration and Education
Wait for 15 days
If treasury_profit<0 for more than 15 days then
remove 5 investment from Education and Administration
wait for 10 days
If estimated_output_of_item > 150% item_consumption then
Stop building more item_factory
Factory Construction Priority:
Steel, Cement, Machine Parts > Other Consumer Goods > Synthetic Raw Material > Military Goods
Also build those factories first with a higher gap between production and usage
If education =100% and administration= 100% then
Start military investment and progress according to the previously used algorithm but now just including this investment
If treasury>50k and profit>0 then
Build railroads
Until all possible railroads in all provinces have been build while keeping budget constraints in mind
Minimum treasury should be 20k
If treasury > 100k and treasury_profit>50 and investments=100% and no railroads can be made then
Decrease tax by 5% for payment until it reaches minimum level supported by the formula (The tax reductions will be done gradually)
high_tax= middle_tax + 20%
middle_tax= low_tax + 10%
wait for 10 days
(these high, middle and low are sections of the society according to their wealth and prosperity as categorized in Victoria II)
If any factory_use_material is low then
Buy 2000 from market
If treasury_profit<0 then
automate the least important trade
If (factory_production = 0) = 2 for a specific item then
Stop building item_factory
```
That was all, if you are still reading this, kudos! Feel free to give your feedback and suggestions in the comments and you can ask questions too!
This simulation took a lot of time so if you show your support it will motivate me.
Stay tuned :)

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---
author: Arjunveer Singh
title: Bakery Economical Simulation (Vensim Model)
tags: ["Vensim", "Cybernetics", "Economics", "Automation", "Simulation"]
---
# Bakery Economical Simulation (Vensim Model)
So, the Victoria II simulations are finished, now I am making my own models for all simulations. So I chose the platform, Vensim for all simulations. Making a whole national economical simulation is already tough, so adding cybernetic automation would make it very complex, so I am right now starting from easy models.
So my first model will be of a Bakery. I will try to transform the economy of bakery into a cybernetic economical one (as much as I can as some aspects cannot be implemented because of a Bakery being too simple). I will do this in stages, progressively adding layers of complexity and slowly fully integrating everything. So to give you a bit of an idea of how that model might look like and also testing it myself (after all this is a learning journey for me too!), I have made a very simple Bakery simulation with all values as constant except Demand, which is also set using a simple Gaussian Distribution formula.
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="700" height="267" loading="eager" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:913/1*3ldRn2eOtnYx7fEM5eyEOw.png">
This is my basic (and messy) model. All values are constant here except Demand which I will show below. I will not share all equations/values as it would take up a lot of space and also will be useless.
These are the graphs of some variables:-
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><img alt="" class="bh th ala c" width="700" height="349" loading="lazy" role="presentation" src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:913/1*D3XKUuEvgTKjYY3n7tdO0g.png">
The variables- Sales Rate and Revenue are almost same like Demand because they are influcened by it. All other graphs are in a straight line (they are constant).
I did not name this post as Cybernetic Automated Bakery Economy Simulation as I just worked with normal values without integrating anything, just to test it myself while at the same time showing a glimpse of what might come next. These models will take me a lot of time to make (as I do not get readymade things as in Victoria II, plus this is far more complicated and advanced than that), so my posts will take time.
But be sure that the content will be worth more than your wait!
Stay tuned :)